We are officially in the dog days of summer.  Rookie minicamp is over and OTA’s are finished.  However, we’re only a week away from the beginning of training camp and a little over a month away from the biggest cock tease of all Preseason Football.  However, in relatively big news today Andrew Luck (QB Colts) signed a “mega-deal” contract extension totaling $139 over 6 years ($87 mil guaranteed).  Since he was already slated for $16 mil this year that means he’s essentially signed a deal for $123M over 5 years. As most expected after the new CBA, the average salary for a starting QB is skyocketing.  Just look around the league at the deals teams are shelling out for this mediocre ass QB class: Brock Osweiler -$72M 4 years, Sam Bradford – $36M 2 years, Chase Daniel (???) $21M 3 years.  Hell RG3 is starting to look like a steal at $15M 2 years.

It seems the bar has been set for new QB contracts with Lucks.  Luck will now average just under $25M per year for the next 6 years.  Luck has been a great player for Indy and deserves a new contract.  However, his stats were way down last year.  As a matter of fact, he was one of the worst QBs in the league.  He finished 2015 only playing 7 games with 1,800 yds, 15 TDs, 12 picks and a 58.7% completion percentage. Many Colts fans thought Matt Hasselback was better than Luck towards the end of the season.  This was also the first year with Luck the Colts missed the playoffs.

So for comparison, lets look at Cousins numbers.  In 16 games Kirk went for 4,166 yds, 29 TDs, 11 picks, and a 69.8% completion percentage.  In summary, Cousins was flat out better than Luck last year. Way better. The skins also won the division and went to the playoffs.  Advantage, Cousins.  Now I’m not oblivious to the fact that Luck was better his first three years than Cousins.  However, the timing of this deal is significant.  Luck had 3 great years and a very down year.  Then he gets paid mega bucks.  Kirk had 3 years of riding the bench, making spot starts then all sudden a huge record breaking year.  So clearly Kirk falls a little short in the experience category to Luck but the potential factor alone should make you believe that Kirk is worth almost the same as Luck.  Lets look at Lucks best year (2014) he went for 4,761 yds, 40 tds, 16 picks, and a 61% completion.  That’s pretty comparable to Cousins 2015 stat line not to mention Luck had 100 more attempted passes in 2014 than Cousins did in 2015.

My gut tells me that I’d rather have Luck that Cousins so you have to imagine that Lucks deal is the absolute ceiling for Cousins.  However, if you don’t think negotiations aren’t starting at $25M/ yr for Cousins, you’re not paying attention.  My prediction is Cousins will be resigned for $85M over 4 years with $50M guaranteed right on July 15th.  People (skins fans) will be outraged over this since it will make Cousins the 6th highest paid QB in the league.  However, this will prove to be wise if Cousins goes out and has another 4,000 yd season with 70% completion especially if we make the playoffs again. We need him and he could use the security of a guaranteed deal. I just don’t see any other way he takes less than $21M/ yr so let’s just get it done already.

PS: Yet if you’re Cousins, wouldn’t you rather not sign the contract, play this year out and hope to outplay Luck for another year? You’re already getting $19.9M under the franchise tag and the salary cap will rise again next year. Not to mention the only QB worth a damn that will be a free agent next year is 37 year old Drew Brees (other recognizable Geno Smith – turrible, Landry Jones – boo, EJ Manuel – gross, Tyrod Taylor – meh). Everyone keeps saying it’s in everyones best interest to get the deal done.  However, it could be in Kirks best interest to ride it out and play well next year.  The risk is high but the pay would be tremendous.