Preface: Yes I missed the entire year – so what, big deal, want to fight about it? We started off poorly and I couldn’t download film to make gifs of plays I thought were important so I did nothing instead.

Week 17 & 8-7-1: Well did that suck or what? All week we heard about how the Giants were going rest their starters and not game plan. To be honest, I blame myself for believing it. The Giants pulled the ultimate con job.  They came out in the media all week and saying things like “it’s hard to prepare for this meaningless game” (OBJ) and “we will rest most of our starters in the 2nd half” (Ben Macadoo) (paraphrasing both) and then played all their starters not named OBJ the whole game  Even Vegas bought it. The redskins were 8 point favorites and they lost by 9. The probably should’ve lost by more if the Giants didn’t run the ball for the entire 3rd quarter.

The season finale was a good summary of the redskins season as a whole. They couldn’t stop the run, couldn’t run the ball, and became too conservative when they needed to be aggressive. Overall, the redskins aren’t a playoff team. We all knew it from week one. They aren’t good enough. We won some games we should not have won and lost some games we should not have lost and somehow almost snuck into the playoffs. To summarize, we’re average. And to be average after a season where your draft class did close to nothing to help is promising.

The skins finished 8-7-1, a half game above 500 but we all know that tie should be a win (thank you Dustin “HooksItLeft” Hopkins for that). That makes it two straight years where the redskins finished above 500. It’s the first time in a decade we can say we that. However, we went 2-4 the last 6 games against teams that, for the most part, we should have beaten.  We finished with essentially the same record as last year and were the first team out of the playoff picture.

Surprises:

The Redskins biggest surprise was the play of the defense.  The redskins finished in the bottom of the league in just about everything and were much worse if you watched them live. Missed tackles, missed assignments, missed tackles, dropped interceptions, inability to shed blocks, and did I mention missed tackles?  There’s nothing worse than letting the Giants, who have one of the worst rushing offenses in the league, to run for over 150 yards. It seems like week after week, our opponents had a “get right game” and had their best game of the year. Is it a lack of talent? Poor coaching? Poor preparation? I say all of the above. If the skins are going to become any sort of contender, they’re going to need to address the defense immediately.

The NFLs biggest surprise this year was the Dallas Cowboys.  All I can say is they must have read my blog on Dak Prescott, because he led them to a 13-3 record in which they’ve manhandled every opponent. We will see if they can stay hot and make a Super Bowl run. As of now, their defense seems to have gotten better and their numerous draft picks are stepping up. It seems like no one can stop their run game and if Dak can continue to not turn the ball over and make good decisions, watch out, the Lombardi could be heading to Dallas just one year after they finished at the bottom of the league (it pains me to write that let along even think of it).

The Giants also finished the year well above previously thought. They played the free agent market and succeeded. They finished 11-5 and are playing their best ball just before the playoffs. Their free agent model was something that the redskins tried for YEARS and failed miserably. Maybe it’s because they have a stable QB, an elite WR, a stud SS who bandaids their imperfections. People are already calling for the redskins and their $50 mil in cap space to replicate their model and revamp our defense. Frankly, I can’t argue with revamping our defense but we must draft players, not pay the highest valued FA. The Giants did a good job finding role players in FA. However, this model has proven more often than not (especially with the redskins) to destroy teams.

Kirk Cousins:

Kirk Cousins finished the year with 4,917 yards, 25 TDs, 12 INTs, and a 67% completion percentage. Those stats were good enough for him to finish 3rd in the league in yards behind Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. Kirk can also boast this stat:

EDIT: Eli Manning threw for more as well

Kirk Cousins had a phenomenal year. He broke his own passing yardage record and lead the redskins to the #3 ranked offense in the league. So why is everyone so down on him? Well , for starters, the eye test tells a different story. Here was a QB that seemed to flounder in the red zone. He regressed drastically back to norm close to the goal line. The redskins finished with a 45% TD to red zone opportunity which was good enough to be 29th in the NFL. That’s down 13% from last season and is, in summary, just bad. Now, this probably has more to do with the run game than with Kirk but it adds to the argument that Cousins arm strength isn’t good enough to force that ball into a WR in tight spots.

Cousins also seemed to flounder in big games. He had a big game against the Bengals in London and another on Sunday Night against the Packers. However, he seemingly laid an egg against the Panthers on MNF and the Giants just a week ago. For the most part, Cousins excelled in shifting line assignments to pick up blitzes and finding the open receivers. However, in the games he struggled were the games he was sacked multiple times and was forcing it to his first read.  Essentially, his worst games were the ones were he resorted back to his old self. In order for him to take that next step, he will have to continue to calm his nerves and trust his line to give him enough time to find the open receiver.

In summary, Cousins proved that 2015 wasn’t a fluke. He proved that with an improved line and another year in the system, he could throw for more yards and lead the redskins to a top 3 offense with little to no run game. However, he helped cement critics concerns that he doesn’t have to stones to come throw in the clutch.  The season finale, a “win or go home” game was one of his worst performances of the year and will leave a sour taste in redskins fans mouths for years to come.

The Future/ Cousins Contract:

I thought this tweet was especially intriguing. Steinberg later went on to say “One is a leading MVP candidate. The other we will spend the rest of our lives debating”. Take a guess on who the two QBs are.  Answer below:

 

 

 

 

 

When you put the stats side by side, it really makes you wonder why bringing Cousins back is even a debate.  Even for the people that hate the numbers, you cannot argue that Cousins is the best QB the redskins have had in the last 25 years. His selflessness, his positive attitude, his work ethic, and his passion for the game is something to admire. He might not have all the bells and whistles of a super star, but he will quietly put up numbers  game after game, and most likely year after year. Another underrated quality of Cousins is his toughness. He is the first QB since Jason Campbell to start every game for two years. As a matter of fact, I don’t think he even missed a play this year.  That consistency is something that the redskins desperately need.

Cousins contract is what the whole offseason will be based around. If the skins decide he’s not worth the money, you can almost guarantee they will try and look for something in the draft (pick #17 by the way). A franchise tag will cost the skins around $24 mil this year and is still very much in play. Cousins value will most likely only increase as the market unfolds and rookie QBs get scouted. Right now, the some of the unrestricted free agent QBs besides Cousins are: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Shaun Hill, Matt Schaub, Matt McGloin, EJ Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Cassell, Mark Sanchez, Brain Hoyer, Geno Smith, Kellen Klemens, etc.  I would be shocked if Cousins isn’t the first one to get a deal out of this group and Cousins deal will dictate what the kind of deal the rest gets.

Last year, I proposed Kirk would get a 4 year $85 Mil contract and unfortunately I was wrong. Cousins ended up betting on himself and played the year on the franchise tag. That bet paid off. There have been rumors that Cousins may make up to $30 mil PER YEAR thanks to a 15% increase in the salary cap, QB starved FA market, and QB needy teams having anywhere from $60-100 mil in cap space (Browns projected $105 mil cap space). Those numbers would make him the highest paid QB in the NFL by about $5 mil per year. To be frank, those numbers are startling.

Kirk is not the best QB in the league by any means but he will become the highest of the highest paid.  This is the nature of the new CBA. Now that the first overall pick isn’t the highest paid player in the NFL year after year, the QB market has picked up the tab. Every year, an average QB is making buku bucks (see Osweiler and Romo). Cousins has found himself in the right place at the right time.

People are going to be hired or fired over the Cousins decision. Cousins, who’s 28 years old, is in his prime and deserves a long term contract. Since it’s not my money, I say pay him what he wants and focus your attention to rebuilding the defense.

Other Redskins Free Agents:

Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon are the two high profile free agents.  It’s becoming apparent that the Redskins are going to only be able to afford one if they want to sign Kirk and add to their defense. If you have to choose one, and they were the same price, you have to choose Garcon. He’s been a steady contributor, a leader, and the WR you go to on 4th and 1. He gets involved in run blocking, plays through injuries, and doesn’t complain when he doesn’t get the ball. He’s a player that is essential to a building team.

On the defensive front, you’re going to have to take a long look at resigning Chris Baker. He was a healthy contributor on a defensive line that was historically bad against the run, rushing the passer, tackling, and pretty much everything. All mock drafts have the redskins taking a defensive lineman or a linebacker.  It’s sad but I honestly see Baker walking. He will be offered something low because of his age (29) and the lack of production of the unit as a whole.

2017 Draft:

The redskins go into this years draft with the 17th overall pick. It’s early to be talking draft but it would be beyond stunning if the redskins didn’t select a defensive player with this pick. Rumors have the redskins scouting defensive lineman but if Reuben Foster falls to 17, I guarantee that’s who the redskins take. More draft talk coming soon.