Month: February 2017

With the 17th Pick, The Redskins Select…

Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU: Oh how the mighty have fallen. You skip one bowl game and suddenly everyone is questioning your heart and love of the game. Like most rational people, I don’t think he slips past the top 10 (or the top 5 for that matter). However, pro football focus thinks differently:

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So, now we’re here. It’s worth noting here that they also have Dalvin Cook, RB, FSU being the first RB off the board at #12 to the Browns as well.  Here are Fournettes stats over his three years at LSU:

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Fournette was the #1 overall recruit in 2014.  According to Wikipedia, in high school, Fournette was a track star as well.  He ran a 200m in 21.67 (fastest in 4A) and a 100 in 10.68 (.02 off the fastest time in 4A).  He started as a true freshman at LSU and made an immediate impact. As a true sophomore, he led college football in yards (162 per game), yards after contact (4.0 yards after carry per carry), and missed tackles (85).  His Junior year was disappointing. He came into the year a clear Heisman candidate but was hampered by injuries. Fournette ended up missing 5 games and sitting out the Citrus Bowl which pissed off a whole lot of fans (myself included).  However, even in the down year his stats were still good (6.5 per attempt).

Take: So, you’re telling me that this 6’1″ 235 lb down-hill runner, who led the nation in yards after contact is also one of the fastest players in college football?  Take him.  Take him here, deal with the bitching from fans, and figure out the defense later. There’s no way this guy falls to #17 but God-forbid, if he does, the skins better take him especially if Dalvin Cook goes ahead of him. PLEASE give me an angry Fournette with a chip on his shoulder for falling in the draft. PLEASE make up stories about his toughness and heart to make him fall to us. Yes, I understand he missed a meaningless bowl game. Yes, I understand he was more concerned about his health than his college team.  Yes, I understand the running back position is the shortest lived position in football. But this kind of talent can be the face of your franchise for a decade. He would take us from a finesse pass-first team to a we’re-running-it-down-your-throat team overnight. Goal line problems? Solved. WR leaving in FA? Go ahead. Our offense would be lights out.

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His highlights are astonishing. I don’t think I’ve ever said “Jesus Christ” more times while watching someone’s film. He is a power back but he has the speed to split safeties and beat corners in a foot race. The thing I admire most about him is his love for contact. Time in and time out, he’ll see a would-be tackler and turn and run straight at him. Some of his craziest plays are him running straight over a defender and waltzing into the end zone (see below). That kind of ferociousness is what the redskins as a whole are lacking. He is a tone setter. People compare him to Peterson and I can see why. However, I don’t think Peterson ever had these kind of trucks. He is a hybrid of Peterson and Earl Campbell in my book.

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Fournette is going to a star and is incredible value at #17.  The only thing that could hold him back are injuries.

Late Round Names to Consider:

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Joe Mixon, RB, Oklahoma: Sticking with the RB theme, meet Joe Mixon. Mixon is 6’1″ 226 who runs similarly to Levon Bell.  Mixon averaged 6.8 yards per carry for the Sooners and was a big part of their Sugar Bowl win over Auburn. However, he is most famous for being suspended for a whole year for punching a woman in the face in public, breaking bones in her face that required surgery to repair. According to Ian Rappaport, Mixon has been also been barred from attending the NFL combine.  At first, Mixon was considered a 2nd round pick. However, he may fall out of the draft completely. It will interesting to monitor his situation moving forward. The video of his assault is almost worse that Ray Rice’s and, unlike Rice, he was actually charged. As a player, I think he’s pretty good. However, now I’m reading there is now a new story of him assaulting a parking attendant in 2016. He needs to mature a good bit before he gets drafted. Yet, I can’t say I’d be unhappy if the redskins selected him with one of their 6th round picks.

Dede Westbrook, WR, Oklahoma: Dede Westbrook is another Sooner to keep an eye on. He stands 6’0″, 175lbs and was a playmaker for Oklahoma this year. He was a Heisman finalist after he finished 2016 with over 1500 yards receiving and 10 TDs.  However, like Mixon, Westbrook has a history of domestic violence. What are they putting in the water down in Oklahoma? In 2012, he was accused of throwing the mother of his two children to the ground. The charges were dismissed and there hasn’t been anything since. His situation is a lot different than Mixon but the stigma is still there. Otherwise, Westbrook is a good player. He is a deep threat similar to Desean Jackson. I’ll wait to see his 40 time but he appears to be one of the fastest WRs in the class. He does a great job of tracking the deep ball and shows great balance along the sideline. Most of his TDs were him being wide open in the Oklahoma spread offense. There is not much tape of him going up and beating a DB one on one so that is a concern. He is a undersized at 175 and probably won’t help much in the run blocking department but his speed alone is worth the 2nd-3rd round pick. His ability to separate from defenders with his quickness and agility (see below) could make him a star in the right system. Let see how he performs at the combine.

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Jake Butt, TE, Michigan: I LIKE JAKE BUTT AND I CANNOT LIE (sorry not sorry). Okay, so this one is a selfish pick (I want a redskins Butt jersey badly). The redskins certainly do not need any help at the tight end position. However, Jake Butt may be too much value in the mid rounds to pass up. Butt is 6’6″, 248 lbs. He won was the nations John Mackey Award winner (Nations Best Tight End). He caught 46 passes for 534 yards his senior year with 4 TDs. Butt was projected as the third TE off the board before he tore his right ACL in the Orange Bowl.  Jake will most likely miss his entire rookie season. What makes matters worse is that he tore the same ACL his sophomore year which makes the injury that much harder to recover from. Butt is a sure handed receiver. He has the size to be a mismatch against any DB and the speed to be a mismatch against linebackers. He doesn’t make many flashy plays after the catch but he is a reliable target on 3rd down. Furthermore, he is no slouch in run blocking. He has the size and strength to match up with anyone in the NFL and will most likely beef up upon signing.  Let me reiterate, probably the last thing the redskins need right now is another injury-prone TE but if he’s sitting around in the 5th round, take him. Davis isn’t getting any younger, Reed is one concussion away from being out of the league and neither are as willing to run block as Butt.

 

Cousins Being Traded to 49ers?

Happy Super Bowl week/ let’s stir up some controversy week! Here was a scenario that was brought up by 106.7 the Fan that really grinds my gears. These radio DJs actually spent a whole afternoon debating if you were in Scot McCloughans shoes whether or not do this trade: Kirk Cousins for San Francisco’s 1st Round Pick this year (#2 Overall) and their 1st Round Pick in 2018.  This trade proposal is a reaction to Kyle Shanahan being name the head coach of the 49ers last week.  Since people hotly debated this all day I figured I would weigh in on why this is a terrible idea.

Continuity: Here’s a fun stat that compares what Cousins did in his 1st two years of starting vs Aaron Rodgers:

Not trying to say Cousins is Aaron Rodgers but hey stats don’t lie. Our offense was #3 in the league in 2016. #1 and #2 are playing in the Super Bowl on Sunday. Continuity at the QB position is the most important part of keeping a top 3 offense next year.  Who would start next year if you trade away Kirk? Colt McCoy? Nate Sudfeld? One of the mediocre rookies coming out in the draft this year or a free agent like Ryan Fitzpatrick?  All of those choices are a step back and with Gruden in his last year of his contract, even the slightest step back could cost him his job.  Then what? (See Rebuild Mode)

Busts: Shocker, but not all 1st round draft picks pan out.  Just ask the Rams who have gotten nothing but worse after we traded them our future for RG3 (1st round swap in 2012 and 2 more 1st rounders!). For example, lets focus on this years consensus #2 overall player on most all of mock drafts right now, Alabama DT Jonathan Allen (Stone Bridge High School-VA product weirdly enough).  He sure seems like the real deal right now but that whole Alabama defense was loaded with talent. Not to mention he was a non-factor in the National Championship, especially on that final, game-losing drive.  He could easily be a product of stacked defense with a lackluster schedule.  It’s exciting to consider the thought of getting Allen at #2 and DE Soloman Thomas or ILB Reuben Foster at #17 but they will need time to develop.  Even so, these two pieces are not going to be enough to fix this crappy defense no matter how dominant they are.

Best Case Scenario: Let’s say Allen is a stud impact player and whoever we get at #17 turns is a stud as well.  Let’s say Cousins falls apart in San Fran and we end up getting the 1st overall pick next in 2018.  Whoopie! You did it! You predicted Cousins was a two-year fluke! You are able to fill some defensive holes in free agency with all the money you saved on Cousins.  Your defense does a full 180 and your defensive coordinator, who has been fired 3 times from his prior DC jobs, is now being considered as head coach material. Now, you are relying on 30 year old Colt McCoy to pick up the slack and keep this offense top flight with no run game and potentially fewer weapons at WR. Also, consider the fact that McCoy is a FA in 2019. So after two years of McCoy, you’re back to the same dilemma you have now. You would either need to sign McCoy to starting QB money or you would need to spend a high round pick on a QB in 2018, most likely one of picks you traded Cousins.  Otherwise, it’s back to picking up free agent QBs.  Welcome back to the QB carousel redskins fans. Consider this: over the last 15 years, only two free agent QBs won a Super Bowl and one is a first ballot Hall of Famer.

Worst Case Scenario: McCoy plays like he did on the Browns. Your running game continues to get worse now that you don’t have a decent passer.  Your defense, even though it’s full of high round picks, struggles under a new defensive coordinator and isn’t good enough to stop the offenses within the division. The division becomes a 3 way tie with Wentz leading the Eagles resurgence, Prescott getting better in the pocket, and the Giants defense becoming a top 5 unit. Cousins lights it up with the 49ers and you’re 2018 1st round pick is in the high 20s. Back to rebuilding from the ground up. Only good news here is the you have a top 5 pick to spend on a new QB and plenty of space to overpay free agents.

Bottom Line: Even the staunchest Cousins detractor knows McCoy is not the future. Most detractors think that the QB of the future is not on this roster and to get more picks now would help build a team that will be able to cultivate a superstar QB down the road.  I’ll admit, the thought of building a young, hungry defense with the picks is very tempting.  However, lets be real. If one (or both) of those picks don’t pan out, you just gave away you franchise holding passer up for close to nothing.  You’re then stuck starting Colt McCoy or someone else’s trash at the most important position on the field for the next two years. Gruden is gone, the the offense is revamped, and the young defense gets a brand new system it has to learn.  Also, it’s hard to imagine the 49ers tanking as hard as they did last year with Cousins under center. Cousins is very familiar with Shanahans offense and with a running back like Carlos Hyde helping to punch it in goal-to-go situations and a healthy defense, it’s unlikely the 49ers season goes the way it did this year.

Bottom Line #2: I wouldn’t trade Cousins for the 49ers next 5 years of 1st round picks. We haven’t had a QB like this EVER. Jump on the Cousins bandwagon. It feels good.

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