The draft is right around the corner and the biggest question the Redskins have is will they take Chase Young at #2 overall or trade back. Redskins fans are somewhat divided on this, both sides as stubbornly confident that they are 100% correct. However, I find myself torn. On one hand, the Redskins could absolutely benefit from selecting edge rusher Chase Young who is widely considered the best player in the draft (some even consider a better prospect than Myles Garrett or Nick Bosa). On the other hand, the Redskins have an entire roster of holes they need to fill starting primarily with an under-achieving defense that finished 27th in the league and is finally overhauling the unsuccessful 3-4 and going to a 4-3 under new coordinator Jack Del Rio. Let’s not forget the offense finished dead last in the league (32nd) in points at a measly 16.6 points per game so clearly we could use some help there up front (replacing Trent Williams at LT, Ereck Flowers LG), at tight end (replacing Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis), and adding some play maker who could help take heat off Terry McLaurin. Basically, what this boils down to is are they Redskins better off with a star (maybe even perennial All-Pro/ Hall of Fame caliber) or are they better off with multiple starters?

In building my argument for one of the other, I kept thinking about all the other blockbuster trades where teams mortgaged their future into trading up for a young QB and thinking the team who received the multiple picks made off like bandits. This is not always the case. Especially with the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) that limits the amount of money a rookie can make in his first 4 years, QBs on rookie deals (especially 1st rounders since they can be locked into a 5th year option) are the greatest asset a team can have. Take the Super Bowl winning Chiefs for example; Pat Mahomes is the MVP of the Super Bowl and is making roughly the same as SS Daniel Sorenson.  Lamar Jackson was the MVP of the regular season and he is making as much as his backup Robert Griffin III! Taking a QB in the 1st round isn’t nearly the financial gamble it once was. Heck, the Cardinals just proved that you can take use a top 10 pick on a QB two years in a row and still add talent (DeAndre Hopkins).

This means is that the Redskins #2 overall pick is more valuable then ever before in league history. Further, two teams are sitting a few picks behind us that desperately need a QB (Dolphins at #5, Chargers at #6, Jaguars at #9).  I compiled a short list of the some of the notable “Rookie QB trade-ups” in the last five years. Here are the recaps.

2016: Titans-Rams (Jared Goff Trade)

Titans received: 2016 1st (#15), 2nd (#43), 2nd (#45), 3rd (#76). 2017 1st (#5), 3rd (#100)

Rams received: 2016 1st (#1), 4th (#113), 6th (#177)

Summary: In their inaugural year in LA, Jeff Fisher’s Rams made the bold move to trade up from 15 to 1 for Cal’s phenom Jared Goff. Sadly, Fisher was fired the following year after Goff sputtered out of the gate. However, in his 2nd year under new coach that we all know well, Sean McVay, Goff turned his career around being selected to the Pro Bowl and leading the Rams to an NFC West division title before losing to the Falcons in the Wild Card. He followed up his 2018 breakout season by leading the Rams to the Super Bowl but losing to the Patriots 13-3 in what was the lowest scoring Super Bowl since 1971. In 2019, Goff struggled at times, throwing a career high in interceptions (16) and missing the playoffs.

The Titan’s did a decent job with the flurry of picks they received. Here is a list of some of the notables:

Jack Conklin, Austin Johnson, Derrick Henry, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith.

Jack Conklin has been a solid starter for the Titans offensive line that is one of the best units in the NFL.  Derrick Henry was downright unstoppable this year behind them, finally breaking out and rushing for over 1500 yards and 16 TDs.  Austin Johnson has been a valuable rotational piece in shutting down the run for the tough Titans defense and Jonnu Smith has made plays. Corey Davis is the question mark in the bunch. He has all the potential but just cant seem to put it all together unfortunately. He still is a nice #2 WR in the run-heavy Titans offense.

Conclusion: I’m going to give the edge to the Rams on this trade since they were able to make it to a Super Bowl under Goff. However, the Titans definitely used their picks widely making this a rare win-win trade. The Titans thought they had something with Marcus Mariota at the time and chose to build around him. They were able to scratch out a wild card win under Mariota but he never developed. This year after a rough start, the Titans benched Mariota and the team rallied around backup Ryan Tannehill.  They made it all the way to the AFC Championship but lost to the buzz saw that was the Kansas City Chiefs. Goff signed a large 4-year extension before the 2019 season that the Rams may soon regret if Goff continues to struggle like this last year.

 

 

2016: Eagles-Browns (Carson Wentz)

Browns received: 2016 1st (#8), 3rd (#77), 4th (#100). 2017 1st. 2018 2nd.

Eagles received: 2016 1st (#2) and a 2017 4th.

Summary: At the time, I predicted Carson Wentz would be the biggest bust in the draft. I was mistaken. Wentz has grown into a gritty QB who, when healthy, is certainly a top 10 QB. However, he is often injured and parts of the fan base still wish Nick Foles was their starter.

Nevertheless, what the Browns did with their ‘haul’ of picks is disgraceful. Those 5 picks turned into 11 players once it was all said and done. Here is the list:

Corey Coleman, Shon Coleman, Cody Kessler, Derrick Kindred, Spencer Drango, Ricardo Louis, Jordan Payton, Jabrill Peppers, Deshone Kizer, Denzel Ward, and Chad Thomas

Woof. Denzel Ward seems to be the only decent pick of the bunch but he was only acquired as part of a trade that gave Houston DeSean Watson!

Conclusion: Even if Denzel Ward becomes a Hall of Fame inductee, the Eagles won this trade. If there was ever a case to never trade back, this would be exhibit A.

2017: Bill-Chiefs (Pat Mahomes)

Bills Received: 2017 1st (#27), 3rd (#91), 2018 1st.

Chiefs Received: 2017 1st (#10)

Summary: At the time, everyone believed Chiefs were mortgaging their future for Clemson superstar DeSean Watson and were stunned when Pat Mahomes was the selection. Obviously the rest is history. Mahomes won MVP in 2018 (his first year starting) and became only the 2nd QB to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 TDs. This last year, he battled through injuries and won Super Bowl LIV MVP. His future couldn’t be more promising.

The Bills were able to turn their haul into some solid pieces that has turned morphed the beleaguered franchise into a contender. Here is the list of the key players received:

CB Tre’Davious White (#27 2017)

WR Zay Jones

ILB Tremaine Edmunds (#16 2018 – Bills had to trade their 2018 3rd to move up from #22)

Edmunds is now captain of the tough Bills defense that helped secure a wild card berth in 2019.  Both White and Edmunds are Pro Bowlers at their positions and Zay Jones has been a useful starter with some breakout games.

Conclusion: Chiefs took a big gamble trading up for the QB not named Watson but it paid off for them in spades. However, how different would the Bills look if they stayed firm and took Pat Mahomes themselves? I feel both teams benefited from this trade but the Chiefs clearly won.

2017: Browns-Texans (Desean Watson Trade)

Browns received:  2017 1st (#25), 2018 1st

Texans received:  2017 1st (#12)

Summary: The Houston Texans jumped up to #12 to get in front of the Arizona Cardinals to stop Watson’s slide.  I remember watching this draft and wondering if Watson was going to fall into the Redskins laps. Desean Watson took the league by storm in his first year but tore his ACL in a non-contact drill in practice which stunted his growth a bit. He followed his 2018 ‘breakout’ season with a Pro-Bowl campaign and a playoff berth. Last year, Watson led the Texans to a division title but lost to the Super Bowl wining Chiefs in the divisional round even after being up 24-0 at one point.

Not to pile on the Browns to much more here but it’s starting to feel like if you are the team acquiring picks from the Browns on draft day, you’re making the right decision. Here are the players the Browns selected with their picks:

Jabrill Pepers and Denzel Ward.

Denzel Ward is a Pro Bowler and is on his way to being one of the top CBs in the league.  Jabrill Peppers currently plays for the Giants.

Conclusion: The Browns were able to get a Pro Bowler out of this. Yet the Texans made off like bandits in this one. Watson is already a top 5 QB in the league and could’ve had a real chance at a Super Bowl if he didn’t run into the Chiefs buzz saw. It will be interesting to see how he deals with the loss of his All-Pro WR Deandre Hopkins this year but it’s clear that the Texans won this trade by a long shot.

Extra Credit: Redskins-Rams (RGIII Trade)

Rams received: 2012 1st (#6), 2nd (#39). 2013 1st. 2014 1st.

Redskins received: 2012 1st (#2)

Summary: Still feels like yesterday. I remember my phone lighting up the moment the trade was announced – the Heisman Trophy winner is coming to DC. RG3-mania started abruptly when he went into New Orleans week 1 and beat a heavily favored Saints team in OT to the tune of 320 yds, 2 TDs and rushing for 44 yards. From there, he went on to lead the skins back from a 3-6 record to our first NFC East division title and first playoff berth since 2007. However, his fall from grace was almost faster then his meteoric rise. He tore his ACL in the playoff loss to the Seahawks. From there, he rushed back in 2013 as a part of his “All In for Week One” campaign but struggled to regain his form from his rookie season and never looked healthy. The Redskins went as Griffin went, going 3-13, losing the last 6 games of the season (3 of which Griffin was benched for Cousins to “reduce further injury” as Coach Shanahan famously said).

In 2014, new head coach Jay Gruden came in to ‘fix’ RG3 but injuries derailed that season as well. Griffin dislocated his ankle in week 2. He was cleared to comeback week 9 and the Redskins proceeded to lose their next three games. He was eventually benched for Colt McCoy, but then reactivated once McCoy injured his neck. The Redskins went 4-12 that year, paving the way to Griffins eventual demise. In preseason 2015, Griffin suffered a concussion in week 2 after trying to dive on a fumble. From there, Kirk Cousins showed flashes and Gruden named him the starter for 2015 where the Redskins rallied around him and were able to win the NFC East with a 9-7 record. Griffin was released before the 2016 season where he was picked up by the Browns then the Ravens.

The Rams certainly received the highest quality of picks out of this trade then any of the other before-mentioned trades. However, once it was all said and done, here is who they ended up selecting:

Greg Robinson, Alec Ogletree, Stedman Bailey, Zac Stacy, Michael Brockers, Janoris Jenkins, Isaiah Pead and Rokevious Watkins

No one outside of Ogletree, Robinson and Jenkins started more than 1 game and even those three are widely considered busts for where they were selected. This would eventually lead to Jeff Fisher’s firing and the Rams organization leaving St. Louis for LA.

Conclusion: The opposite of the Jared Goff trade, this one appeared to be a lose-lose. However, I still hold firm that the Rookie of the Year RG3 year was worth far more than all of those Rams selections combined. Also, had the Redskins not traded up to select Griffin at #2, they may have reached on Tannehill at #6 (or maybe even Russell Wilson in the 2nd/ 3rd round before Seattle had a chance to get him).  Yet, it makes you wonder how different things could have been had RG3 had not injured his knee that first year or rushed himself back.

Grand Finale:

Over the last decade, it appears the team that has traded up for their QB has been rewarded. If the Redskins believe they have their man in Haskins and trade back for a “kings ransom” of picks, they better be damn sure because history is not on their side.

 

 

EDIT: I omitted the Mitch Trubinsky trade since it was one spot up and the Niners turned those 3rd and 4th round picks into a handful of role players. I feel like the Bears got fleeced in that one but you could make the argument that even they won that trade