Cornerback Josh Norman has reportedly signed a 5 yr $75 million deal. Some considered he was the best CB in the league last year on the NFC champion Carolina Panthers. Now he comes to DC to fill a much needed hole in the secondary.  For starters, this is a lot of money for a guy who’s only had one rock solid year.  Lets take a look at his numbers (via ESPN.com):

So the numbers that jump out at me are the 2012 and 2013 stat lines.  Being a 5th round pick and starting is nice. But 2013 he was benched in favor of Captain Munnerland and UDFA Melvin White.  2014 he broke out onto the scene by Jeremy Maclin, Mike Evans, and Josh Gordon.  In 2015, QBs posted a passer rating of 54.0 when throwing to Norman (via Wikipedia.org). Surprised to learn that the player with the most passes defended last year was David Amerson (CB who the redskins cut midseason).  Norman finished the year with 18 passes defended only two more than our very own Bashaud Breeland.  Is that stat worthless? Maybe. It seems like the only real measuring stick you can have when comparing CBs.  But when a player like David Amerson tops the list and Sherman and Talib finish in the 20s,it doesn’t seem like a good statistic.

Another interesting aspect of the signing is the guarantee.  Norman is guaranteed roughly $36 million and only two years.  Therefore if he’s a complete bust this year or next the redskins can cut him and get $40 mil back over 3 years.  People are overreacting to the amount of money paid to him in a big way.  For instance, Janoris Jenkins just got a 5 year deal with the Giants for $65 mil and he was where near the player Norman was last year.  This is life with the new CBA.  The best player in FA is going to make big money.  Norman is now the highest paid CB in the league.  Lets hope he plays like it.

So what does this do to the redskins draft?  Well for starters, we are not taking a CB first round (unless Jalen Ramsey falls 20 spots). Happy that the skins saw what I did with this years crop.  By signing Norman the redskins have essentially said all the players with 1 year left on their contract are most likely gone if they don’t produce.  Here’s the list via Sportsrac.com:

There’s a handful more at the bottom but the overwhelming number of players who will be gone after 2017 are pass catchers (TEs and WRs).  TE’s Davis, Reed, Paulson are all on the chopping block in 2017.  Both our best WRs are gone too (Garcon and Jackson). That would leave the redskins with Niles Paul as your only TE and Ryan Grant and Jamison Crowder as your 1 and 2 receivers.  Niles Paul can be a starter in the NFL but Grant and Crowder are not true 1/2 receivers.  $40 mil of our cap is going to our top two WRs and QB.  The redskins would be wise to take both a QB and a WR in case we can’t afford one of the three.  All bets are off on whether it’ll be Treadwell at #21 are someone farther down the list.  All reports say the redskins are smitten with Ryan Kelly C Alabama.  The WR class this year isn’t all that great.  No true speedsters and Calvin Johnson types.  They’re all 6’4″ or smaller and roughly 4.4-4.7 speed.  Treadwell is the best receiver in the class technically but his injury history and his poor combine are red flags.  But if he turns out to be a viable #1 receiver, the redskins could save boat loads.

 

In a shocking development, the Carolina Panthers have reminded their franchise tag option for their breakout cornerback Josh Norman.  In an even more surprising development, the redskins are the front-runners in signing him.  

 

Yes the eagles and the cowboys were quarterback-less dumpster fires this year but the line on OBJ is the most important. Breeland is a good corner but he was owned by OBJ the last two years.  OBJ averages 122 yards per game and has 5 TDs against us already in his young career.  Norman could be the answer to that twice a year.

So what does this mean about the redskins draft? Probably means that McCloughan doesn’t like his options at CB at #21. It also means McCloughan is well aware of our lack of depth in the secondary.  You can expect a DB somewhere in the first three rounds for sure.

Following along with that I’m now seeing that Mel Kiper has the redskins taking WVU safety Karl Joseph at #21.  After watching his highlights I was surprised he wasn’t on my radar.  He’s rated the best available safety on NFL.com.  He’s 5’10” 205 lbs but plays like a a linebacker. His run fills were perfect and he had no trouble delivering a big hit in space.  The knock on him is his ACL tear at the end of his senior season.  He might not be the same player when he comes back.  WVU had a great secondary this year. WVU was all over Alabama this year and he was a big part of stopping their vertical offense.  Would I be happy if the redskins drafted him? Honestly no I would not be happy. As good as he was, the knee injury is concerning.  He’s definitely a round 2-3 player with the injury.  He would help fill a need but he’s too much of a question mark to take with your first pick.  If he’s there at #57 though…

To finish today I want explore a player that you may have not heard of, Kenneth Dixon, RB La Tech. He stands 5’10 215 lbs and runs a 4.58 40.  He has a 37.5 vert and was one of the top performers at the combine in the shuttle and the cone drill.  He’s no burner but trust me he’s fast.  Just watch his highlights: Dixon RB LA Tech.  He runs ANGRY.  He’s always finishing his runs with the shoulder down. His vision is fantastic and his juke steps were excellent.  He even was a threat in the passing game.  He went up over two defenders and came down with it multiple times.  Dixon broke the FBS record in rushing TDs with 87 TDs in his career (then broken by Navy’s Keenan Reynolds in their final game). Needless to say that kind of production does not come around often.  The knock on him is his health.  He sat out a couple game his senior year with an ankle injury.  Also, one scout says his running style lends himself to be hurt more often. I felt disgusting writing that last sentence.  If that doesn’t tell you what kind of runner he is then there’s nothing more I can tell you.  Look out for his name to be announced day two and possibly even before Derrick Henry.

 

 

It appears the Eagles have fallen in love with one of these overrated top two QBs. Wow the mighty have fallen! Philly fans were harassing me about the RG3 trade all the way up until the day we beat them to win the NFC east and now look at them.  Still not nearly the kings ransom that the skins gave away but still enough to scratch your head at.  Essentially philly will have this pick and their 2nd round pick and nothing until round 5.  With that being said here’s my take on the top two QB prospects in the 2016 draft:

Jared Goff QB Cal: This dude has a cannon for an arm.  His highlights are full of perfectly thrown bombs.  He has the touch for the corner routes and has the strength to zip them in there underneath.  Really impressed with his game film.  The knocks on him is his size.  Standing 6’4″ he has the height but 215lbs he’s lean. Especially with how slow he moves around in the pocket he’s nothing but skinny sitting duck back there. He was sacked 83 times at Cal which could be a product of his timing or a product of their shitty o-line.  He’s not afraid to step up in the pocket but that could change when you have a DT like Suh breathing down your neck.  He also played in a spread offense AKA was never under center.  I don’t think that’s as big of a deal as it used to be but he will have to focus on his drop steps early on in his career. That may hold him back a year or two before he hits his full potential.  I watched him play one game and he threw 5 picks.  Credit to him to go back out there and keep throwing but any performance like that in the NFL and you’ll be tarred and feathered.  All in all, he’s a gun slinger.  This guy could be a beast.  More accurate prediction is he ends up being a top 10 QB at best and a very good backup at worst. The Matt Ryan comparison is spot on.

Carson Wentz QB NDSU: Let’s start with his size. He stands 6’5″  and weighs 235 lbs.  Pretty much the perfect size for a QB. He’s faster that Goff – 4.77 40 – and beat almost all the QBs in the broad and vertical.  He’s an athlete.  Played FCS ball so his competition wasn’t as fierce but he won almost all his games as a starter.  Now, when I put on the film I was surprised by the lack of big plays.  He likes to roll out and throw on the run (+) but he tends to try and force it to guys who are double covered (—-).  Most of his highlights are of him pulling the ball out of his RBs hands and running it himself. His accuracy was good at times but overall meh. After watching his highlights again I saw 5 passes that were 50/50 balls that should’ve been picked off but his WR came down with. Call me crazy but I didn’t think he was all that special.  Frankly, I see this guy as being someone who’s going to take time to mature into a true pocket passer and will need a coordinator to build an offense around his strengths. He has the size but really there’s nothing impressive about him at all.  I see him starting for many teams and being a journeyman backup.

COMPARISON: Jared Goff is the better QB here but a mile.  Really its not even close. You be the judge – Goff Highlights and Wentz Highlights .  For starters, Wentz only had 5 minutes of highlights. Goff had 30 minutes.

Now lets consider the other QBs available here.  Paxton Lynch QB Memphis is considered the 3rd best QB in the draft so he’s next.  This guy is bigger than both Goff and Wentz.  6’7″ 244… the guy looks Martin Gortat out there. He’s got an NFL arm for sure.  One of his highlights is a double reverse pass where he hits a guy in stride from 70 yards out.  He’s not a sitting duck either.  Ran the 40 in 4.86 and has numerous highlights of him lowering the shoulder for the first down. Lots of scouts comparing him to Ben Rothlisburger and I can see it.  He stands tall, guns it when he needs to and can improvise when a play breaks down. Knocks on him are similar to Wentz.  He played in a spread offense. Never took snaps from under center and most of his throws were to his first read.  However, you can’t teach the improvisation and he did that numerous times. I was thoroughly impressed with his tape.  Would say he’s way better than Wentz and has more potential as well. If the eagles had a pair, they should probably draft him at #2

Connor Cook QB MSU is the consensus 4th overall QB in this years draft.  Cook has the arm and played in a pro-style offense his whole college career.  He should have no problem adjusting to the NFL playbook.  However, who can forgot his dickish way of snagging the Big 10 Championship trophy from Archie Griffin (video here Connor Cook diss)? Also, lets not forget he was never a captain of the MSU football team. Overall, Connor Cooks highlights are OK.  Nothing spectacular and for the most part average.  The most telling sign of a average QB is what happens to your team when you don’t play. Lets take the Ohio State game this past year for instance where I lost $20 betting on the Buckeyes. Cook sat out that game with a shoulder injury and MSU still managed to upset the reigning champs.  Yes they ran the ball 100 times, played the field position game and won on a field goal but still.  Cook was absolutely the beneficiary of great game-planning.  Let me put this bluntly – Cook is going to stink as an NFL QB.  He’s not a leader and has a bit of a subconscious ego that will rear it’s ugly head when he has to ride the bench.  Think of Ryan Mallet. I see Cook being another Ryan Mallet all day long. Could I be wrong? Sure. He has the arm strength and didn’t make many mistakes as a QB at MSU.  But he got destroyed when they played Alabama.  No way is he first-round QB. Period.

So there you have it.  Here’s my list of the 10 best QB’s in the draft:

1. Jared Goff, Cal
2. Paxton Lynch, Mem
3. Dak Prescott, Miss St
4. Connor Cook, MSU
5.  Carson Wentz, NDSU
6. Kevin Hogan, Stanford
7. Cody Keslley, USC
8. Cardale Jones, OSU
9. Christian Hackenburg, PSU
10. Jake Rudock, Mich

So its been brought to my attention that LaQuon Treadwell is being compared to Anquan Boldin (2003 Offensive Rookie of the Year, 3x Pro Bowler, Super Bowl Champion).  After doing some light research, his measurable are almost exactly the same.

Pre-Draft Measurables (From Wikipedia.org)

Boldin:

Height: 6’1″

Weight: 216 lbs

40: 4.71

Vert: 33.5 ”

Broad: 9ft 6in

Shuttle: 4.33

Treadwell:

Heigh: 6’2″

Weight: 221 lbs

40: 4.63

Vert: 33.0″

Broad: 9ft 9in

Shuttle: 4.30

 

So there you have it. 3 time pro bowl WR Anquan Boldin is basically reincarnated. McCloughan knows Boldin well after trading a 6th round draft pick to get him from the Ravens. Treadwell was a beast this season coming back from that injury posting 82 catches, 1,183 yards and 3 TDs in the Sugar Bowl win over Oklahoma State.  Treadwell clearly has the heart and determination to excel at the next level but he will never be a true deep threat or a true goal line threat. He falls in that gray area where he’ll just have to outwork everyone he plays and catch anything that comes near him. But maybe thats his greatest gift.

What still bothers me is whether he can stay healthy. I watched him break his fibula and dislocate his ankle over and over as he was reaching for the goal line in that Auburn game (still makes me cringe) and the good thing is it wasn’t a knee.  Without that on his resume he would have a clean bill of health.  I’m going to change my mind on Treadwell and say I would be happy if the skins take him at 21.  Would be even happier if we took him at 29 after the cardinals trade us everything for Paxton Lynch before the Jets get a shot at it.

UPDATE:

Heard on the 106.7 the Fan that Mel Kiper has the redskins taking Alabama center Ryan Kelly.  Here’s some notes on Kelly:

• Three year starter for Alabama
• Won SEC player of the week twice as a junior
• Consensus All-SEC
• Has not allowed a sack in TWO YEARS
• Honor role student at Alabama (3.75 GPA)
• 6’4″ 311 lbs
• 26 reps at 225

Got to say I wasn’t feeling a center pick up at #21 until I started reading more about this guy. He was the anchor of the Alabama line that dominated the trenches the last three years.  Over the last three years, Alabamas top running backs have average roughly 6 yards per carry. Now I understand that could be just a product of Derrick Henry (another guy I’m high on) but stats don’t lie.  When you don’t give up a sack in 2 years against the best competition in NCAA football that should speak for itself.  Not to mention he was an honor role student from the moment he got there. Watched the film from the Alabama-Georgia game and he was handling them with ease.  Didn’t make any outstanding blocks but didn’t make any mistakes.  With no injury history, this appears to be the kind of player that can be your center for a decade.  Every draft expert expects him to start or compete for the starting position the moment he comes to training camp.  “Solid day two pick” – CBSsports.com.  Would I be happy if the redskins drafted Kelly? Yes.  Why not pick a guy that will contribute immediately?  This guy looks like a surefire starter for years.  Skins need a center in the worst way too.  Is he that much better than the Notre Dames Nick Martin (brother of Dallas’s Zack Martin)?  Looks like the only difference between them is Nick had a season-ending knee injury that could come back to bite him.

 

 

 

Welcome to my blog where I ramble about the potential draft picks.  The redskins have several options with the 21st pick. Here’s quick look at what all the experts are thinking we’re picking:

• NFL.com Writers:
  • Bucky Brooks: LaQuon Treadwell WR Ole Miss
  • Daniel Jaramieh: Jarran Reed DT Alabama
  • Charlie Casserly: Eli Apple CB Ohio State
  • Charles Davis: A’shawn Robinson DT Alabama
  • Lance Zierlan: LaQuon Treadwell WR Ole Miss
  • Chad Reuter: Jarran Reed DT Alabama
• CBSsports.com: Reggie Ragland ILB  Alabama
• SB Nation: Jarran Reed DT Alabama
• Drafttek.com: A’shawn Robinson DT Alabama
• Walterfootball.com: Kenny Clark DT UCLA
• Draftsite.com: William Jackson CB Houston
• ESPN: Fuck them for making me pay to see their picks

Out of the 11 experts listed, 9 say defense, 6 say defensive line, 6 say an Alabama player.  So its safe to say the skins are probably picking defense here and its most likely going to be an alabama player.  So the consensus around the league is A’Shawn Robinson or Jarran Reed. Got it.  Well for the sheer reason I can’t seem to find any highlights for Jarran Reed on youtube after searching so let’s breakdown A’Shawn Robinson.  Robinson is a big guy.  He was part of the national champions and the best defense in D1 football last year.  When I watch him I see his long arms and his drive for finishing the play.  Nothing really sexy about his highlights.  Looks like a hard worker who plays to the whistle.  Has the measurables to be a good player.  Will he ever dominate the interior? If I had to guess no.  His ceiling is a starter in the NFL.  Will never see the pro bowl but will be a role player and probably make some plays for a team. McCloughan has said he knows what player he wants and this fits his mold of “the NFL is a big man’s league” and “wants a football player who can set the tone in the locker room”.  Would I be happy with A’Shawn? I can’t say happy but I would be content.  Seems like a ‘safe’ pick.

Let’s break down some of the other picks starting with another Alabama player Reggie Ragland.  Redskins need some help and inside linebacker.  Perry Riley regressed last year and Keenan Robinson keeps getting hurt.  Both are now 2nd string behind Mason Foster (mid-season pickup) and Will Compton (barely made the team). Long story short, ILB is a certified need for the redskins.  Reggie Ragland is a guy who made some plays for the Crimson Tide last year.  He’s fearless and has an incredible motor.  So many of his highlights are him meeting the running back on the edge and throwing him backwards.  I’m a firm believer in defense starts with the Middle Linebacker.  Alabama was the best in the game so Reggie must be the best in the game. My one worry was the pass coverage.  How is he when he’s matched up with a TE?  Another is his pass rush.  Looks like he wasn’t asked to pass rush much at Alabama.  Would I be happy with this pick? Yes.  I wouldn’t be ecstatic but he would come in a contribute immediately. It’s also filling a need.  The only reason for not being ecstatic is the fact that linebackers are out there this draft.  You may be able to get one later on.

LaQuon Treadwell got two votes so he’s next.  First off, Treadwell is a freakish athlete.  I’ve watched him for two years torch SEC defenses.  His highlights are phenomenal.  He’s got a knack for making big plays and catches everything in sight.  But after his bad combine and his worse Pro-day I’m concerned that he may be a flash in the pan.  Ole Miss runs a hurry-up style offense where Treadwell gets most of catches on screens.  That doesn’t usually convert well to the NFL.  He’s 6’2″ and seems to jumps over everyone on the film.  NFL might not be so easy.  He’s 6’2″, his vert was 33″ and his 40 was 4.65.  He’s not a deep threat and he’s not going to jump over NFL corners with those stats. Would I be happy with this pick?  No. Redskins have too many holes to fill and this WR is a risky pick. Not to mention Treadwell had a horrific injury at the end of the 2014 season that required surgery.

Now let’s talk about the CB’s. Eli Apple doesn’t fit the 1st round grade to me.  He’s one of the those players that has the size and speed so scouts want to talk about his potential. This guy played on a talent-stacked Ohio State and barely made enough plays in two years to fill a 4 minute video on youtube.  There’s no debating that he’s an athlete but there’s just not enough there to warrant a first-round selection.  Would I be happy with this pick? No. Hell no. Absolutely not. He’s no better than what the redskins have now and he’ll need some grooming to be a starter in the NFL.

Now William Jackson III is a guy who had some production when you put on the tape. Listed at 6’0″ he looks and plays bigger than Eli Apple.  His competition was weak coming out of Houston but it looks like he got a pass deflection in almost every game he played.  His has 4.3 speed and the length to grow into a dominant force on the edge.  Would I be happy with this pick?  The simple answer is yes but I would be upset if we passed on a Alabama player here for him.  His biggest weakness from the scouts is his press/ man to man coverage down low.  He also looks like a liability in the tackling department.  His sky high potential makes me a happy camper with him though.

So I’m not even going to mention Kenny Clark since he’s a 2nd rounder everywhere else and Walter Football is heavy on their DT’s this year.  So that being said I want to bring up the thoughts of some late 1st/ early 2nd rounders that the skins may find themselves picking up. Lets start with Andrew Billings DT Baylor. Do yourself a favor and watch this video: Andrew Billings Highlights.  Now if that doesn’t get your blood flowing then you should check into your local hospital.  His explosion off the ball, the violence of his hits, the lateral movement, the hip control, the arm strength, the play recognition… I loved watching every second of that video.  Compact that with the fact he just turned 21 in March and you have yourself a potential pro bowl caliber player who’s been overlooked because of the team he played for.  In summary, a guy who is pissed off.  He’s a 311 pounder who can flat out motor – 4.96 40 yard dash! He’s played nose tackle his whole career and has been facing nothing but double teams all year. His stats you ask?  15 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks.  Are you kidding me?  How is this guy not getting more love. Would I be happy if the redskins pick him? Yes. Now he is a bit of a pudgeball and may not be able to dominate like he did the college but you have 5 years before he’s 26 (peak NFL age).  Coach him up and let his physical attributes grow.

Next up: Robert Nkemdiche DT Ole Miss. This is another one of those who jumps out at you when you plug in the tape.  He’s 296 lbs and ran a 4.86 40.  Wow.  He was the #1 overall recruit in 2013 and for good reason. He helped turn the Ole Miss football program around almost single-handedly.  He was a beast during his time and seemed to show up in the clutch moments of games (especially against Alabama).  He did have a knack for taking plays off though.  And oh yeah he jumped out of a window while smoking pot and fell 3 stories.  He’s such a freak that he didn’t even get hurt but many scouts are wondering how mentally stable a guy like that is.  Would I be happy if the redskins drafted him? Yes. I would be concerned about his character but god damn his measurables are off the charts. 6’3″ 296 lbs 4.86 40 and 35″ vert?  Hopefully by falling out of the first 20 picks that would be the wake-up call he needed.

Next up: Noah Spence Edge Eastern Kentucky.  What a motor this guy has. He looks like he could beat any OT off the line on any play.  Half of his highlights he barely even got touched before he blows up the QB.  6’2″ 250 with a  4.80 40, this dude has the burst you need to be a premier pass rusher in the NFL.  His broad jump was the #3 at the combine coming in at 121 inches. Once again, burst.  Like Nkemdiche, he has some character issues. He failed two drug tests and OSU and was forced to transfer.  Unlike Nkemdiche, he has faced those issues head on and was very open about being a better man.  He had 13.5 sacks for Eastern Kentucky last year with 22.5 TFLs.  He may very well be the best pass rusher in this draft class. Would I be happy if the skins drafted him? Yes. You can’t have enough pass rushers and he is the cream of the crop in this class.  Pass rusher is not a need but having him in the rotation makes it that much harder for the opposing offensive coordinator.

Next up: Josh Doctson WR TCU.  Now here’s a guy who’s similar to Treadwell but with some more lateral speed.  He goes up and gets the ball. The knock on him is his strength. Will he get pressed out of every play? That’s to be seen. He’s 6’2″ and runs a 4.50 40 and has a 41″vert.  Pretty much a prototype all-around WR.  He’ll need to beef up a little bit at the NFL level but could be a valuable backup to Desean Jackson. Would I be happy if the skins draft him? I would have to say yes but only if the defensive guys I want are gone.

Next up: Will Fuller WR Notre Dame. 6’0″ and 4.32 40.  Dude is a burner. Flat out speed and played against some good DBs in his time.  Could be the best WR in the draft and no one is talking about him. He got the best grade on NFL.com too.  Like Doctson, his strength is a concern. 33.5″ vert is not that great. 10 reps at 225 is not NFL caliber.  He would be a liability in the run game.  Would I be happy if the redskins picked him? No. He has a high ceiling so I wouldn’t be drinking bleach if we did but pick a defensive lineman here and hope he falls to the 2nd round.

So there’s my thoughts.  Would be good to see to see the redskins trade down and gather up some more picks but that seems like what every team wants to do these days.  This draft is as deep as they come.  If someone 22-31 falls in love with Paxton Lynch (KC, ARZ, DEN or maybe the Browns if they don’t take one #2) it wouldn’t be surprising to see the skins trade back and pick up a few picks.  Last year McCloughan went in with 7 and came away with 10.  This year he wants 12.  All picks are up for sale if you ask me.

Skins picks in 2016:

• No. 21 (1st Round)
• No. 53 (2nd Round)
• No. 84 (3rd Round)
• No. 120 (4th Round)
• No. 158 (5th Round)
• No. 187 (6th Round – From Saints)
• No. 232 (7th Round)
• No. 242 (7th Round)